USD/CAD Retreats Ahead of US Retail Sales, BoC Inflation Data in Focus

USD/CAD dipped to 1.3730 early Monday, consolidating gains as markets await critical US Retail Sales figures. The Loonie (CAD) exhibits strength while the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near a six-month high of around 106.00.

Market Movers: Retail Sales, BoC Outlook

  • US Retail Sales (March): Expectations for a 0.3% increase will shape Fed rate cut expectations. A stronger-than-anticipated reading would diminish hopes for near-term cuts, supporting the USD.
  • Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Tuesday): This inflation data will significantly influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate path, with a softer reading potentially fueling expectations for a BoC rate cut cycle.

Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Uptrend Intact, Key Levels to Watch

USD/CAD’s recent breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern signals strong bullish momentum. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3610 and a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforce the positive outlook.

  • Resistance: April 12 high (1.3787), November 4 high (1.3844), November high (1.3900)
  • Support: April 9 low (1.3547), psychological level (1.3500), February 22 low (1.3441)

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